INC NEWS - New Shape of Cities

[Pat Carstensen]

You may have heard the speculation that the slums are moving to the suburbs.  One quote, from the Atlantic:

"Arthur C. Nelson, director of the Metropolitan Institute at Virginia Tech,
has looked carefully at trends in American demographics, construction,
house prices, and consumer preferences. In 2006, using recent consumer
research, housing supply data, and population growth rates, he modeled
future demand for various types of housing. The results were bracing:
Nelson forecasts a likely surplus of 22 million large-lot homes (houses
built on a sixth of an acre or more) by 2025—that’s roughly 40 percent
of the large-lot homes in existence today."

Governing Magazine has an article on what is happening in Atlanta
http://www.governing.com/articles/0807atlanta.htm

In summary:
1) People who have enough $$ to have lots of choices in where they live are choosing to move into the city of Atlanta to shorten their commutes.  Sometimes this works (the newcomers work with the pillars of the existing community to kick out the problems), sometimes it doesn't (the newcomers just build fortress townhouses)
2) Some suburbs are becoming more vibrant and politically interesting, with immigrant communities and more fun stuff to do
3) Some suburbs could be going into death spirals, becoming significantly less middle class, largely because they got a bad school board
4) Georgia state government has been totally useless in supporting the changing needs of the city

So the real story seems to be more nuanced than "the suburbs are dying."  But there are going to be new winners and losers in terms of where people want to live.

My thoughts about what this means for Durham / the Triangle
1) The way employment centers in the Triangle are spread out, plus our relatively small size, will mean that the kind of shifts they are seeing in Atlanta happen here a lot later, and be even more nuanced
2) So far, the re-energizing of areas of Durham is happening without any fortress townhomes.
3) Southern and Eastern Durham County are so central that as the cost of gas goes up, they could be big winners, along with all the downtown areas in the Triangle
4) Thus we shouldn't act so desperate -- we can afford to ask for better quality development
5) And we have to ask for better quality development -- the Triangle is probably going to have less than its share of surplus suburban housing, but we should let Johnston County have most of it!

Regards, pat 




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