[Durham INC] Fw: Update regarding severe weather potential for Friday

[M. W. Shiflett - Hotmail]

Please take care later on today as severe weather is approaching Durham (see message below from Emergency Management Coordinator-David Marsee)
----- Original Message ----- 
From: dmarsee at durhamcountync.gov 
Sent: Thursday, May 31, 2012 5:50 PM
Subject: FW: Update regarding severe weather potential for Friday


From: Nicholas Petro [mailto:nicholas.petro at noaa.gov] 
Sent: Thursday, May 31, 2012 3:39 PM
To: _NWS ER RAH State; _NWS ER RAH Dot; _NWS ER RAH Partners; _NWS ER RAH Schools; nws.er.rah.media at noaa.gov; Nicholas Petro
Subject: Update regarding severe weather potential for Friday

 

Not much has changed since yesterday regarding what we think will happen tomorrow (Friday).  The Storm Prediction Center still has much of NC in a slight risk area for Friday, with a 30% probability of severe weather.  


     
     


Here are some important points regarding this potential event.

  a.. High confidence that a line of strong to severe thunderstorms will move across the state tomorrow. 
  b.. High confidence that the main impacts with this line of storms will be strong to severe wind gusts capable of producing damage such as downed trees and power lines, and in some limited cases some structural damage, along with large hail.  
  c.. Isolated tornadoes can not be ruled out.  
  d.. Estimated timing of the squall line and its impacts (this is our best estimate at this time and subject to adjustment) : 
    a.. Mountains during the late morning to early afternoon 
    b.. Western Piedmont during the mid to late afternoon
    c.. Eastern Piedmont and western Coastal Plain during the late afternoon to early evening
    d.. Coastal Plain during the evening
    e.. Coastal areas during the late evening
  e.. What's less certain is the potential for isolated to scattered thunderstorms out ahead of the main line.  If these thunderstorms do form before the main squall line moves across, some of these thunderstorms may be capable of producing large hail and isolated tornadoes.  
  f.. Right now it still looks like the best chance for tornado activity will be to our north, but this situation bears close watching.  The Storm Prediction Center has noted that a more widespread event could evolve if the right conditions come together.  They also mentioned that the severe thunderstorm probabilities (shown in the graphic above) may need to be increased with future outlooks.  
Of course we're keeping a close eye on this situation, and we'll bring you updates as conditions warrant.   In the meantime, if you have any questions or need any clarification about this, don't hesitate to give me a call or email.   You can also reach our 24/7 operational staff at (919)515-8200 (EM, DOT, Schools) or (919)515-8203 (Media).  Finally, NWS Chat is a great tool and resource to ask questions, submit storm reports, and receive a live readout of all the latest NWS products... the address is:  http://nwschat.weather.gov/live . 

Thanks,
Nick

-- ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~Nicholas Petro, WX3HWarning Coordination MeteorologistNational Weather Service RaleighEmail:  nicholas.petro at noaa.govOffice:(919)515-8209 ext 223Cell:(919)515-8209 ext 223, then press 7http://weather.gov/Raleigh~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

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