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This article is long and wonky. Todd Litman is a well-established thinker on urban policy.</div>
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<div id="divRplyFwdMsg" dir="ltr"><font face="Calibri, sans-serif" color="#000000" style="font-size:11pt"><b>From:</b> Transportation Discussion Forum <CONS-TRANS-CHAIRS-FORUM@LISTS.SIERRACLUB.ORG> on behalf of Darrell Clarke <darrclarke@gmail.com><br>
<b>Sent:</b> Friday, May 14, 2021 8:18 PM<br>
<b>To:</b> CONS-TRANS-CHAIRS-FORUM@LISTS.SIERRACLUB.ORG <CONS-TRANS-CHAIRS-FORUM@LISTS.SIERRACLUB.ORG><br>
<b>Subject:</b> Todd Litman, The Housing Supply Debate: Evaluating the Evidence</font>
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<span style="font-size:12.0pt; font-family:"Corbel","sans-serif"; color:#006600">This is a good new critique of three different camps on housing policies, by Todd Litman in Planetizen.<br>
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Darrell</span></p>
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<span style="font-size:12.0pt; font-family:"Corbel","sans-serif"; color:#006600"> </span></p>
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<span style="font-size:12.0pt; font-family:"Corbel","sans-serif"; color:#006600"><a href="https://www.planetizen.com/node/113295?utm_source=newswire&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=news-05132021&mc_cid=b6fb6094a3&mc_eid=EV6RKf2K4O">https://www.planetizen.com/node/113295?utm_source=newswire&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=news-05132021&mc_cid=b6fb6094a3&mc_eid=EV6RKf2K4O</a></span></p>
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<span style="font-size:12.0pt; font-family:"Corbel","sans-serif"; color:#006600"> </span></p>
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<b><span style="font-size:22.5pt; color:black">The Housing Supply Debate: Evaluating the Evidence</span></b></p>
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<b><span style="font-size:12.0pt; color:#333333">Let's rely on science, not ideology and propaganda, when planning solutions to urban unaffordability. Look for credible evidence in the peer-reviewed publications referenced here.</span></b></p>
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<span style="font-size:10.5pt; color:#8F8F8F"><a href="https://www.planetizen.com/user/2394"><span style="color:#2874DE; text-decoration:none">Todd Litman</span></a> | May 13, 2021, 9am PDT</span></p>
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<span style="font-size:12.0pt; color:#006600"> </span></p>
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<span style="font-size:12.0pt; color:#333333">Few issues cause more blood to boil than debates about the causes and solutions to housing unaffordability. On this issue, many people lead with their opinions followed by whatever evidence they can muster. The
results can get ugly, particularly for those of us who prefer information to be credible.</span></p>
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<span style="font-size:12.0pt; color:#333333">My latest column, "<a href="https://www.planetizen.com/blogs/112725-critical-review-sick-city-disease-race-inequality-and-urban-land"><span style="color:#2874DE">A Critical Review of 'Sick City: Disease, Race, Inequality
and Urban Land'"</span></a> included a critique of Professor Patrick M. Condon's article, "<a href="https://www.planningreport.com/2021/02/18/patrick-condon-density-affordability-hungry-dogs-land-price-speculation"><span style="color:#2874DE">Density, Affordability,
& The 'Hungry Dogs' of Land Price Speculation</span></a>," published in <i><a href="https://www.planningreport.com/about-planning-report"><span style="color:#2874DE">The Planning Report</span></a></i>, a Los Angeles-based trade publication. I contacted the
editor-in-chief, David Abel, to discuss my counterpoint to Condon's article.</span></p>
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<span style="font-size:12.0pt; color:#333333">In response, Mr. Abel sent links to <i>Planning Report</i> interviews of leading supply skeptics, including "<a href="https://www.planningreport.com/2018/04/09/ucla-s-michael-storper-squaring-urbanism-density"><span style="color:#2874DE">UCLA’s
Michael Storper on Squaring Urbanism & Density</span></a>" and "<a href="http://www.planningreport.com/2021/02/18/exporting-californias-housing-challenges-michael-storper-patrick-condon-correct-record"><span style="color:#2874DE">Exporting California's Housing
Challenges? Michael Storper & Patrick Condon Correct the Record on Out-Migration</span></a>."</span></p>
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<span style="font-size:12.0pt; color:#333333">In my view, these articles present a narrow perspective and lack critical analysis, thus raising an epistemological question: How should we evaluate <a href="https://www.vtpi.org/resqual.pdf"><span style="color:#2874DE">research
quality</span></a> in the field of planning and urban development? </span></p>
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<span style="font-size:12.0pt; color:#333333">Of course, everybody is entitled to their own opinions, but not their own facts. Some publications are little more than propaganda—information presented only if it supports a predetermined conclusion. Good planning
requires comprehensive, objective, accurate, and transparent information that allows policy-makers, practitioners, and the general public to make informed decisions. Here are a few rules to help evaluate research quality:</span></p>
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<span style="font-size:12.0pt">It should have a well-defined research question.</span></li><li class="x_MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt; font-size: 11pt; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;color:#333333; background:white">
<span style="font-size:12.0pt">It should include a review of previous related research.</span></li><li class="x_MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt; font-size: 11pt; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;color:#333333; background:white">
<span style="font-size:12.0pt">Data sources and analysis should be clear and available for review.</span></li><li class="x_MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt; font-size: 11pt; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;color:#333333; background:white">
<span style="font-size:12.0pt">It should discuss critical assumptions, potential biases and omissions, contrary findings, and alternative interpretations.</span></li><li class="x_MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt; font-size: 11pt; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;color:#333333; background:white">
<span style="font-size:12.0pt">It should be peer reviewed.</span></li><li class="x_MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt; font-size: 11pt; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;color:#333333; background:white">
<span style="font-size:12.0pt">It should acknowledge and respond to legitimate criticism.</span></li></ul>
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<span style="font-size:12.0pt; color:#333333">Let's evaluate the quality of research used by proponents of various housing policy ideologies.</span></p>
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<b><span style="font-size:22.5pt; color:black">Housing Policy Ideologies</span></b></p>
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<span style="font-size:12.0pt; color:#333333">There are three main housing policy ideologies: free market proponents, planning experts, and supply skeptics. Let's examine the quality of their evidence.</span></p>
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<b><i><span style="font-size:18.0pt; color:black">Free Market Proponents</span></i></b><b><span style="font-size:18.0pt; color:black"></span></b></p>
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<span style="font-size:12.0pt; color:#333333">Free market proponents such as The <a href="https://www.heritage.org/housing"><span style="color:#2874DE">Heritage Foundation</span></a>, <a href="https://joelkotkin.com/reports/"><span style="color:#2874DE">Joel
Kotkin</span></a>, and <a href="http://www.demographia.com/"><span style="color:#2874DE">Wendell Cox</span></a> blame housing unaffordability on regulations that limit urban expansion and therefore the construction of single-family housing. As evidence, they
point to <a href="http://www.demographia.com/dhi.pdf"><span style="color:#2874DE">International Housing Affordability Survey</span></a> data showing lower housing prices in sprawling cities such as Houston and Atlanta compared with more compact cities like
New York and San Francisco. However, as discussed in my column, "<a href="https://www.planetizen.com/blogs/97706"><span style="color:#2874DE">True Affordability: Critiquing the International Housing Affordability Survey</span></a>" and my more <a href="https://www.vtpi.org/ihasc.pdf"><span style="color:#2874DE">detailed
critique</span></a>, that report is incomplete and biased. The study appears to oversample single-family housing (we can't be sure because the analysis is not transparent), which exaggerates unaffordability in compact cities where a large portion of lower-priced
housing is multifamily. It also ignores other costs besides houses prices, such as utility and transportation expenses. When these costs are considered, compact, multimodal cities such as Minneapolis, Seattle, and Philadelphia turn out to be more affordable
overall than sprawled, automobile-dependent cities such as Atlanta and Houston, as illustrated below.</span></p>
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<span style="font-size:12.0pt; color:#333333"><img border="0" width="1551" height="624" id="x_Picture_x0020_1" alt="https://www.planetizen.com/files/img/image006_0.jpg" data-outlook-trace="F:1|T:1" src="cid:image003.jpg@01D748E1.1BF56EF0"></span></p>
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<span style="font-size:12.0pt; color:#8F8F8F">Housing and transportation costs: Although Houston and Atlanta households spend less on housing, this is offset by their high transportation costs, making those cities less affordable overall than Seattle and San
Diego. (Source: <a href="http://www.bls.gov/cex/tables.htm"><span style="color:#2874DE">2016 Consumer Expenditure Survey</span></a>) </span></p>
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<span style="font-size:12.0pt; color:#333333">Free market advocates also tend to misrepresent consumer demands and land use restrictions. They assume that almost all households want to live in single-family houses in automobile-dependent suburbs, although <a href="https://www.nar.realtor/reports/nar-community-and-transportation-preference-surveys"><span style="color:#2874DE">housing
preference surveys</span></a> indicate that a growing majority of households want to live in mixed-use, walkable urban neighborhood and lead multimodal lifestyles. They also assume that anti-sprawl restrictions are common and the primary cause of housing price
increases, but as Michael Lewyn and Kristoffer Jackson demonstrate in "<a href="http://mercatus.org/publication/how-often-do-cities-mandate-smart-growth-or-green-building"><span style="color:#2874DE">How Often Do Cities Mandate Smart Growth or Green Building?</span></a>" such
regulations are actually uncommon and weak, while regulations limiting affordable infill are extremely common.</span></p>
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<b><span style="font-size:13.5pt; color:black">The Quality of Their Evidence</span></b></p>
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<span style="font-size:12.0pt; color:#333333">Free market advocates tend to publish through pro-market, industry-supported think tanks that have low standards of evidence. They seldom publish in peer reviewed journals. My critiques of their publications, such
as "<a href="https://www.vtpi.org/sgcritics.pdf"><span style="color:#2874DE">Evaluating Criticism of Smart Growth</span></a>," "<a href="https://www.vtpi.org/ihasc.pdf"><span style="color:#2874DE">True Affordability: Critiquing the International Housing Affordability
Survey</span></a>," and "<a href="https://www.vtpi.org/PPFR.pdf"><span style="color:#2874DE">Response to Putting People First</span></a>," identify substantial omissions, biases and errors in their analysis, which they seldom acknowledge or correct. They generally
ignore evidence concerning various costs of sprawl including <a href="https://htaindex.cnt.org/"><span style="color:#2874DE">high transportation costs</span></a>, <a href="http://www.thepolisblog.org/2011/12/race-and-foreclosure-in-bay-area-fringe.html"><span style="color:#2874DE">increased
housing foreclosure rates</span></a>, and <a href="http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S016920461500242X"><span style="color:#2874DE">reduced economic mobility</span></a> (i.e., the opportunity for children to become more economically successful
than their parents). </span></p>
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<b><i><span style="font-size:18.0pt; color:black">Housing Experts</span></i></b><b><span style="font-size:18.0pt; color:black"></span></b></p>
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<span style="font-size:12.0pt; color:#333333">Most housing experts that I work with take a nuanced view of housing unaffordability problems and solutions. We define housing problems broadly to include homelessness, the problems facing low-income households
(first income quintile, who are mostly renters), and the lack of affordable housing options for moderate-income households (second and third income quintile) in high-accessibility, <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-01-27/where-urban-sprawl-makes-it-tougher-for-the-poor-to-rise-up-the-social-and-economic-ranks"><span style="color:#2874DE">high-opportunity neighborhoods</span></a>.
We consider total housing and transportation costs when evaluating affordability.</span></p>
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<span style="font-size:12.0pt; color:#333333">We support reforms to allow developers to build more affordable housing types (e.g., multiplexes, townhouses, and mid-rise multifamily) with unbundled parking (parking rented separately from housing, so car-free
households are no longer forced to pay for costly parking spaces they don't need) in walkable urban neighborhoods, including large-scale upzoning, eliminating parking minimums, reducing development fees and approval requirements for moderate-priced infill,
plus subsidizing housing for families with special needs.</span></p>
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<span style="font-size:12.0pt; color:#333333">Most planners also support innovative home ownership models, such as housing cooperatives and co-housing, modest inclusivity requirements (not so high that they reduce housing production), subsidies for households
with special needs such as disabilities and very low incomes, and, sometimes, special regulations such as rent controls to limit rent increases.</span></p>
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<b><span style="font-size:13.5pt; color:black">The Quality of Their Evidence</span></b></p>
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<span style="font-size:12.0pt; color:#333333">An extensive body of peer reviewed research supports planning experts' position. This evidence is summarized in a recent report by professors Shane Phillips, Michael Manville, and Michael Lens, "<a href="https://www.lewis.ucla.edu/research/market-rate-development-impacts"><span style="color:#2874DE">Research
Roundup: The Effect of Market-Rate Development on Neighborhood Rents</span></a>," and discussed in several of my previous columns including "<a href="https://www.planetizen.com/blogs/112725-critical-review-sick-city-disease-race-inequality-and-urban-land"><span style="color:#2874DE">A
Critical Review of 'Sick City: Disease, Race, Inequality and Urban Land</span></a>,'" "<a href="https://www.planetizen.com/blogs/102740-can-upzoning-increase-housing-supply-and-affordability"><span style="color:#2874DE">Can Upzoning Increase Housing Supply
and Affordability?</span></a>," "<a href="https://www.planetizen.com/blogs/100293-how-filtering-increases-housing-affordability" target="_blank"><span style="color:#2874DE">How Filtering Increases Housing Affordability</span></a>," "<a href="https://www.planetizen.com/blogs/100402-dynamic-planning-affordability" target="_blank"><span style="color:#2874DE">Dynamic
Planning for Affordability</span></a>," and "<a href="https://www.planetizen.com/blogs/111723-smart-growth-cest-bon"><span style="color:#2874DE">Smart Growth C’est Bon</span></a>," plus this recent news article, "<a href="https://www.planetizen.com/node/113269"><span style="color:#2874DE">New
Developments Lower Rents in Surrounding Neighborhoods, Study Says.</span></a>"</span></p>
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<span style="font-size:12.0pt; color:#333333">If that’s not enough, I’ve listed below several high-quality peer-reviewed publications which indicate that large-scale upzoning tends to increase affordability for both moderate- and low-income households through <a href="https://www.planetizen.com/blogs/100293"><span style="color:#2874DE">filtering</span></a>,
as some households move from existing, lower-priced housing into the new units. This does not eliminate the need for housing subsidies, but can significantly increase affordability for moderate-income households that don't quality for subsidies, and increases
the number of families that can be housed with a given subsidy budget.</span></p>
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<span style="font-size:12.0pt; color:#333333">Brian J. Asquith, Evan Mast and Davin Reed (2019), <i><a href="https://doi.org/10.17848/wp19-316"><span style="color:#2874DE">Supply Shock Versus Demand Shock: The Local Effects of New Housing in Low-Income Areas</span></a></i>,
Working Paper 19-316 W. E. Upjohn Institute for Employment Research. (Subsequently <a href="https://www.planetizen.com/news/2021/05/113269-new-developments-lower-rents-surrounding-neighborhoods-study-says"><span style="color:#2874DE">published by The Review
of Economic and Statistics</span></a>)</span></p>
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<span style="font-size:12.0pt; color:#333333">Jake Blumgart (2021), <i><a href="https://citymonitor.ai/housing/how-does-new-construction-affect-nearby-housing-prices"><span style="color:#2874DE">How Does New Construction Affect Nearby Housing Prices?</span></a></i> City
Monitor.</span></p>
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<span style="font-size:12.0pt; color:#333333">Vicki Been, Ingrid Gould Ellen, and Katherine O’Regan (2019), <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/10511482.2018.1476899"><span style="color:#2874DE">“Supply Skepticism: Housing Supply and Affordability</span></a>,” <i>Housing
Policy Debate</i>. </span></p>
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<span style="font-size:12.0pt; color:#333333">Bethel Cole-Smith and Daniel Muhammad (2020), <i><a href="https://bit.ly/2VS9EaK"><span style="color:#2874DE">The Impact of an Increasing Housing Supply on Housing Prices: The Case of the District of Columbia, 2000
-2018</span></a></i>, District of Columbia Government. </span></p>
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<span style="font-size:12.0pt; color:#333333">Hongwei Dong (2021), “<a href="https://doi.org/10.1177/0739456X21990728"><span style="color:#2874DE">Exploring the Impacts of Zoning and Upzoning on Housing Development: A Quasi-experimental Analysis at the Parcel
Level</span></a>,” <i>Journal of Planning Education and Research</i>.</span></p>
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<span style="font-size:12.0pt; color:#333333">Xiaodi Li (2019), <i><a href="https://docs.wixstatic.com/ugd/7fc2bf_ee1737c3c9d4468881bf1434814a6f8f.pdf"><span style="color:#2874DE">Do New Housing Units in Your Backyard Raise Your Rents?</span></a></i>, NYU Furman
Center.</span></p>
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<span style="font-size:12.0pt; color:#333333">Evan Mast (2019), <i><a href="https://research.upjohn.org/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1325&context=up_workingpapers"><span style="color:#2874DE">The Effect of New Luxury Housing on Regional Housing Affordability</span></a></i>,
W.E. Upjohn Institute for Employment Research. </span></p>
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<span style="font-size:12.0pt; color:#333333">Andreas Mense (2020), <i><a href="http://www.econstor.eu/handle/10419/224569"><span style="color:#2874DE">The Impact of New Housing Supply on the Distribution of Rents</span></a></i>, Beiträge zur Jahrestagung des
Vereins für Socialpolitik, Gender Economics, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.</span></p>
<p class="x_MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt; font-size: 11pt; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;margin-bottom:11.25pt; background:white">
<span style="font-size:12.0pt; color:#333333">Leah Platt Boustan, et al. (2019), <i><a href="https://ssrn.com/abstract=3439180"><span style="color:#2874DE">Does Condominium Development Lead to Gentrification?</span></a></i>, Working Paper 26170, National Bureau
of Economic Research.</span></p>
<p class="x_MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt; font-size: 11pt; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;margin-bottom:11.25pt; background:white">
<span style="font-size:12.0pt; color:#333333">Dowell Myers and Jung Ho Park (2019), “<a href="https://www.huduser.gov/portal/periodicals/cityscpe/vol21num1/ch7.pdf"><span style="color:#2874DE">A Constant Quartile Mismatch Indicator of Changing Rental Affordability
in U.S. Metropolitan Areas</span></a>,” <i>Cityscape</i>, Vol. 21/1, pp. 163-200. </span></p>
<p class="x_MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt; font-size: 11pt; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;margin-bottom:11.25pt; background:white">
<span style="font-size:12.0pt; color:#333333">Dowell Myers and Jungho Park (2020), <i><a href="https://www.nmhc.org/research-insight/research-report/nmhc-research-foundation-study-filtering-of-apartment-housing-between-1980-and-2018"><span style="color:#2874DE">Filtering
of Apartment Housing between 1980 and 2018</span></a></i>, National Multifamily Housing Association Research Foundation. </span></p>
<p class="x_MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt; font-size: 11pt; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;margin-bottom:11.25pt; background:white">
<span style="font-size:12.0pt; color:#333333">Shane Phillips, Shane Phillips and Michael Lens (2021), <i><a href="https://www.lewis.ucla.edu/research/market-rate-development-impacts"><span style="color:#2874DE">Research Roundup: The Effect of Market-Rate Development
on Neighborhood Rents</span></a>,</i> UCLA Lewis Center for Regional Policy Studies.</span></p>
<p class="x_MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt; font-size: 11pt; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;margin-bottom:11.25pt; background:white">
<span style="font-size:12.0pt; color:#333333">Stuart S. Rosenthal (2014), “<a href="http://bit.ly/1STnKzE"><span style="color:#2874DE">Are Private Markets and Filtering a Viable Source of Low-Income Housing? Estimates from a ‘Repeat Income’ Model</span></a>,” <i>American
Economic Review</i>, Vo. 104, No. 2, pp. 687-706. (DOI: 10.1257/aer.104.2.687).</span></p>
<p class="x_MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt; font-size: 11pt; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;margin-bottom:11.25pt; background:white">
<span style="font-size:12.0pt; color:#333333">Miriam Zuk and Karen Chapple (2016), <i><a href="https://bit.ly/2PK3aqN"><span style="color:#2874DE">Housing Production, Filtering and Displacement: Untangling the Relationships</span></a></i>, Institute of Governmental
Studies.</span></p>
<p class="x_MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt; font-size: 11pt; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;margin-right:0in; margin-bottom:8.25pt; margin-left:0in; background:white">
<b><i><span style="font-size:18.0pt; color:black">Housing Supply Skeptics</span></i></b><b><span style="font-size:18.0pt; color:black"></span></b></p>
<p class="x_MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt; font-size: 11pt; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;margin-bottom:11.25pt; background:white">
<span style="font-size:12.0pt; color:#333333">Housing supply skeptics, such as <i><a href="https://www.planningreport.com/2018/04/09/ucla-s-michael-storper-squaring-urbanism-density"><span style="color:#2874DE">The Planning Report</span></a></i>, <a href="https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/usappblog/2019/11/30/we-cannot-build-our-way-out-of-inequality/"><span style="color:#2874DE">Andrés
Rodríguez-Pose and Michael Storper</span></a>, and <a href="https://uploads-ssl.webflow.com/5efd1c1c4e2740c1bb1bfb69/60001a4f82797d502d088dcf_Sick%20City%202021.pdf"><span style="color:#2874DE">Patrick M. Condon</span></a> blame high housing prices on "fiscalization,"
greedy speculators, and capitalism. They reject the idea that upzoning can increase housing affordability and economic opportunity, arguing that it only benefits the rich, harms the poor, and leads to gentrification. To increase affordability they recommend
coop housing, housing subsidies, public housing, inclusionary requirements, plus new taxes and price control regulations.</span></p>
<p class="x_MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt; font-size: 11pt; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;margin-bottom:11.25pt; background:white">
<span style="font-size:12.0pt; color:#333333">Supply skeptics seldom acknowledge the potential downsides of these policies. For example, excessive inclusivity requirements can <a href="https://www.planetizen.com/blogs/104047-what-market-can-bear-defining-limits-inclusive-housing-requirements"><span style="color:#2874DE">reduce
new housing production</span></a>, which reduces future housing affordability, rent controls can discourage rental housing investments, and public housing can concentrate poverty and discourage families from moving to new areas that have better economic opportunities
but market-priced rents.</span></p>
<p class="x_MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt; font-size: 11pt; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;margin-right:0in; margin-bottom:8.25pt; margin-left:0in; background:white">
<b><span style="font-size:13.5pt; color:black">The Quality of Their Evidence</span></b></p>
<p class="x_MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt; font-size: 11pt; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;margin-bottom:11.25pt; background:white">
<span style="font-size:12.0pt; color:#333333">Supply skeptics often use anecdotal evidence, such as high prices of new high-rise condominiums after a single parcel was upzoned, that do not reflect proposed polices, such as large-scale upzoning. As previously
mentioned, <i>Planning Report</i> editor David Abel sent me various articles ("<a href="https://doi.org/10.1177/0042098019859458"><span style="color:#2874DE">The limits to deregulation and upzoning in reducing economic and spatial inequality</span></a>," "<a href="http://www.planningreport.com/2019/06/17/minneapolis-planning-commissions-alissa-luepke-pier"><span style="color:#2874DE">Residential
Upzoning Risks Unintended Consequences</span></a>," and "<a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-05-09/-build-more-housing-is-no-match-for-inequality"><span style="color:#2874DE">Build More Housing' Is No Match for Inequality</span></a>") that
he believes justify supply skepticism, but they are all interviews or opinion pieces that lack critical analysis or peer review. Some actually indicate that upzoning generally does increase affordability, but skeptics emphasize constraints and uncertainties
(it alone cannot solve homelessness, and the benefits vary depending on specific conditions), which they then claim demonstrates that upzoning is totally ineffective and harmful.</span></p>
<p class="x_MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt; font-size: 11pt; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;margin-bottom:11.25pt; background:white">
<span style="font-size:12.0pt; color:#333333">These publications often cite and misrepresent Yonah Freemark's study, "<a href="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1177/1078087418824672"><span style="color:#2874DE">Upzoning Chicago: Impacts of a Zoning Reform
on Property Values and Housing Construction</span></a>," which found that property values increased, and few new units were built, after some Chicago transit station area parcels were upzoned. Supply skeptics claim that this proves that upzoning is ineffective
at adding supply and drives up housing prices, but that misrepresents the study. The study area was a tiny portion (less than 2%) of the city’s residential area. As Freemark stated about his study: "In no way is it suggesting that increases in the number of
housing units won’t eventually lead to lower prices overall."</span></p>
<p class="x_MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt; font-size: 11pt; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;margin-bottom:11.25pt; background:white">
<span style="font-size:12.0pt; color:#333333">Supply skeptics ignore this conclusion. Anybody who claims that Freemark's study proves that broad upzoning is ineffective at adding supply and drives up housing prices is either ignorant or dishonest. Read the
study!</span></p>
<p class="x_MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt; font-size: 11pt; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;margin-bottom:11.25pt; background:white">
<span style="font-size:12.0pt; color:#333333">A few older academic studies do suggest that increasing housing supply is ineffective at increasing affordability. Richard Applebaum and John Gilderbloom's 1983 study, "<a href="https://doi.org/10.1177/002188638301900102" target="_blank"><span style="color:#2874DE">Housing
Supply and Regulation: A Study of the Rental Housing Market</span></a>," found that increasing rental housing construction does not necessarily reduce rents, and Andrejs Skaburskis' 2006 study "<a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/43198349" target="_blank"><span style="color:#2874DE">Filtering,
City Change and the Supply of Low-priced Housing in Canada</span></a>" concluded that the filtering process is too slow to significantly reduce low-income households housing burdens. However, these studies are old and did not account for important confounding
factors. For example, rental housing growth tends to be greatest in cities that also have more population and employment growth that drives up housing costs; their rent increases would probably have been higher with less housing supply growth, as <a href="https://bit.ly/2VS9EaK"><span style="color:#2874DE">Cole-Smith
and Muhammad</span></a> found. </span></p>
<p class="x_MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt; font-size: 11pt; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;margin-bottom:11.25pt; background:white">
<span style="font-size:12.0pt; color:#333333">The only recent quantitative study I’ve seen that supports supply skepticism is Rodríguez-Pose and Storper's article, “<a href="https://doi.org/10.1177/0042098019859458"><span style="color:#2874DE">Housing, urban
growth and inequalities: The limits to deregulation and upzoning in reducing economic and spatial inequality</span></a>" published in <i>Urban Studies</i> in 2019. It uses some stained arguments and questionable evidence to conclude that upzoning only benefits
affluent people and harms the poor. For example, it finds that regional economic growth rates are not significantly affected by the degree of housing regulation (ignoring all possible confounding factors), and so concludes that deregulation does not increase
economic opportunity. That is terrible logic, and an example of quality of their analysis. That paper was subsequently criticized by professors Michael Manville, Michael Lens, and Paavo Monkkonen in "<a href="https://doi.org/10.1177/0042098020910330"><span style="color:#2874DE">Zoning
and Affordability: A Reply to Storper and Rodríguez-Pose</span></a>." They point out numerous technical problems with Storper and Rodríguez-Pose’s research, including significant inaccuracies. James Brasuell discussed these opposing claims in a column published
a few months ago, "<a href="http://www.planetizen.com/features/110707"><span style="color:#2874DE">An Academic Debate with Very Real Consequences: Land Use Regulations and the Cost of Housing</span></a>." I suggest that anybody who wants to understand this
debate review these articles.</span></p>
<p class="x_MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt; font-size: 11pt; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;margin-right:0in; margin-bottom:8.25pt; margin-left:0in; background:white">
<b><span style="font-size:22.5pt; color:black">Comparing Research Quality</span></b></p>
<p class="x_MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt; font-size: 11pt; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;margin-bottom:11.25pt; background:white">
<span style="font-size:12.0pt; color:#333333">The table below compares these three ideologies.</span></p>
<table class="x_MsoNormalTable" border="0" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="1890" style="width:472.5pt; background:white; border-collapse:collapse">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td valign="top" style="border:inset 1.0pt; border-top:solid #DDDDDD 1.0pt; padding:6.0pt 6.0pt 6.0pt 6.0pt">
<p class="x_MsoNormal" align="center" style="margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt; font-size: 11pt; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;margin-bottom:11.25pt; text-align:center">
<span style="font-size:12.0pt; color:#333333"> </span></p>
</td>
<td valign="top" style="border-top:solid #DDDDDD 1.0pt; border-left:none; border-bottom:inset 1.0pt; border-right:inset 1.0pt; padding:6.0pt 6.0pt 6.0pt 6.0pt">
<p class="x_MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt; font-size: 11pt; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;margin-right:0in; margin-bottom:8.25pt; margin-left:0in">
<b><span style="font-size:13.5pt; color:black">Free Market Advocates</span></b></p>
</td>
<td valign="top" style="border-top:solid #DDDDDD 1.0pt; border-left:none; border-bottom:inset 1.0pt; border-right:inset 1.0pt; padding:6.0pt 6.0pt 6.0pt 6.0pt">
<p class="x_MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt; font-size: 11pt; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;margin-right:0in; margin-bottom:8.25pt; margin-left:0in">
<b><span style="font-size:13.5pt; color:black">Housing Experts</span></b></p>
</td>
<td valign="top" style="border-top:solid #DDDDDD 1.0pt; border-left:none; border-bottom:inset 1.0pt; border-right:inset 1.0pt; padding:6.0pt 6.0pt 6.0pt 6.0pt">
<p class="x_MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt; font-size: 11pt; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;margin-right:0in; margin-bottom:8.25pt; margin-left:0in">
<b><span style="font-size:13.5pt; color:black">Supply Skeptics</span></b></p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="top" style="border:inset 1.0pt; border-top:none; padding:6.0pt 6.0pt 6.0pt 6.0pt">
<p class="x_MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt; font-size: 11pt; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;margin-bottom:11.25pt">
<b><span style="font-size:12.0pt; color:#333333">Who they are</span></b><span style="font-size:12.0pt; color:#333333"></span></p>
</td>
<td valign="top" style="border-top:none; border-left:none; border-bottom:inset 1.0pt; border-right:inset 1.0pt; padding:6.0pt 6.0pt 6.0pt 6.0pt">
<p class="x_MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt; font-size: 11pt; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;margin-bottom:11.25pt">
<span style="font-size:12.0pt; color:#333333">Advocates of free markets and deregulation, and pro-sprawl industry-supported organizations.</span></p>
</td>
<td valign="top" style="border-top:none; border-left:none; border-bottom:inset 1.0pt; border-right:inset 1.0pt; padding:6.0pt 6.0pt 6.0pt 6.0pt">
<p class="x_MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt; font-size: 11pt; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;margin-bottom:11.25pt">
<span style="font-size:12.0pt; color:#333333">Planning professionals and urban economists. YIMBY activists.</span></p>
</td>
<td valign="top" style="border-top:none; border-left:none; border-bottom:inset 1.0pt; border-right:inset 1.0pt; padding:6.0pt 6.0pt 6.0pt 6.0pt">
<p class="x_MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt; font-size: 11pt; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;margin-bottom:11.25pt">
<span style="font-size:12.0pt; color:#333333">Marxist activists and some academics.</span></p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="top" style="border:inset 1.0pt; border-top:none; padding:6.0pt 6.0pt 6.0pt 6.0pt">
<p class="x_MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt; font-size: 11pt; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;margin-bottom:11.25pt">
<b><span style="font-size:12.0pt; color:#333333">Who they blame</span></b><span style="font-size:12.0pt; color:#333333"></span></p>
</td>
<td valign="top" style="border-top:none; border-left:none; border-bottom:inset 1.0pt; border-right:inset 1.0pt; padding:6.0pt 6.0pt 6.0pt 6.0pt">
<p class="x_MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt; font-size: 11pt; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;margin-bottom:11.25pt">
<span style="font-size:12.0pt; color:#333333">Urban growth boundaries and other Smart Growth policies.</span></p>
</td>
<td valign="top" style="border-top:none; border-left:none; border-bottom:inset 1.0pt; border-right:inset 1.0pt; padding:6.0pt 6.0pt 6.0pt 6.0pt">
<p class="x_MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt; font-size: 11pt; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;margin-bottom:11.25pt">
<span style="font-size:12.0pt; color:#333333">Zoning regulations that limit affordable housing types, and other policies that favor expensive over lower-cost housing.</span></p>
</td>
<td valign="top" style="border-top:none; border-left:none; border-bottom:inset 1.0pt; border-right:inset 1.0pt; padding:6.0pt 6.0pt 6.0pt 6.0pt">
<p class="x_MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt; font-size: 11pt; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;margin-bottom:11.25pt">
<span style="font-size:12.0pt; color:#333333">Large corporations, greedy speculators, the rich, and capitalism.</span></p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="top" style="border:inset 1.0pt; border-top:none; padding:6.0pt 6.0pt 6.0pt 6.0pt">
<p class="x_MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt; font-size: 11pt; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;margin-bottom:11.25pt">
<b><span style="font-size:12.0pt; color:#333333">What they recommend</span></b><span style="font-size:12.0pt; color:#333333"></span></p>
</td>
<td valign="top" style="border-top:none; border-left:none; border-bottom:inset 1.0pt; border-right:inset 1.0pt; padding:6.0pt 6.0pt 6.0pt 6.0pt">
<p class="x_MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt; font-size: 11pt; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;margin-bottom:11.25pt">
<span style="font-size:12.0pt; color:#333333">Eliminate restrictions on urban expansion, and allow more sprawl so developers can build on cheap urban fringe land.</span></p>
</td>
<td valign="top" style="border-top:none; border-left:none; border-bottom:inset 1.0pt; border-right:inset 1.0pt; padding:6.0pt 6.0pt 6.0pt 6.0pt">
<p class="x_MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt; font-size: 11pt; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;margin-bottom:11.25pt">
<span style="font-size:12.0pt; color:#333333">Reform regulations to allow more compact infill, favor moderate-price housing, improve infrastructure in walkable urban neighborhoods, and subsidize housing for families with special needs.</span></p>
</td>
<td valign="top" style="border-top:none; border-left:none; border-bottom:inset 1.0pt; border-right:inset 1.0pt; padding:6.0pt 6.0pt 6.0pt 6.0pt">
<p class="x_MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt; font-size: 11pt; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;margin-bottom:11.25pt">
<span style="font-size:12.0pt; color:#333333">Significantly increase government subsidies, public housing projects, inclusivity requirements, land value capture taxes, and rent control regulations.</span></p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="top" style="border:inset 1.0pt; border-top:none; padding:6.0pt 6.0pt 6.0pt 6.0pt">
<p class="x_MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt; font-size: 11pt; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;margin-bottom:11.25pt">
<b><span style="font-size:12.0pt; color:#333333">Quality of their evidence</span></b><span style="font-size:12.0pt; color:#333333"></span></p>
</td>
<td valign="top" style="border-top:none; border-left:none; border-bottom:inset 1.0pt; border-right:inset 1.0pt; padding:6.0pt 6.0pt 6.0pt 6.0pt">
<p class="x_MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt; font-size: 11pt; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;margin-bottom:11.25pt">
<span style="font-size:12.0pt; color:#333333">Poor. Mostly published by advocacy organizations. Little peer review.</span></p>
</td>
<td valign="top" style="border-top:none; border-left:none; border-bottom:inset 1.0pt; border-right:inset 1.0pt; padding:6.0pt 6.0pt 6.0pt 6.0pt">
<p class="x_MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt; font-size: 11pt; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;margin-bottom:11.25pt">
<span style="font-size:12.0pt; color:#333333">Good. Many high quality peer-reviewed publications. Ongoing research to address uncertainty. </span></p>
</td>
<td valign="top" style="border-top:none; border-left:none; border-bottom:inset 1.0pt; border-right:inset 1.0pt; padding:6.0pt 6.0pt 6.0pt 6.0pt">
<p class="x_MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt; font-size: 11pt; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;margin-bottom:11.25pt">
<span style="font-size:12.0pt; color:#333333">Poor. Mostly anecdotal evidence, and some highly criticized and disputed studies.</span></p>
</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p class="x_MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt; font-size: 11pt; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;margin-bottom:11.25pt; background:white">
<span style="font-size:12.0pt; color:#333333">This suggests that both Free Market Advocates and Supply Skeptics rely on poor quality evidence, and that neither ideological extreme offers comprehensive solutions to unaffordability problems; their prescriptions
may be appropriate in specific situations, but those are limited. Housing experts have solid research that can help guide planners to develop the combination of policies that can achieve affordability and opportunity goals.</span></p>
<p class="x_MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt; font-size: 11pt; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;margin-bottom:11.25pt; background:white">
<span style="font-size:12.0pt; color:#333333">There is, I believe, a positive message here. If we follow the science we can identify excellent solutions to unaffordability problems. There is abundant credible evidence that large-scale upzoning to allow more
affordable housing types—multiplexes, townhouses and mid-rise multifamily—in walkable urban neighborhoods can significantly increase housing and transportation affordability for low- and moderate-income households. To accomplish this, it must be sufficient
in scale to create a competitive market for upzoned parcels, as discussed in a previous <a href="https://www.planetizen.com/blogs/112725-critical-review-sick-city-disease-race-inequality-and-urban-land"><span style="color:#2874DE">blog</span></a>.</span></p>
<p class="x_MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt; font-size: 11pt; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;margin-bottom:11.25pt; background:white">
<span style="font-size:12.0pt; color:#333333">For example, if a neighborhood needs 100 new units per year to meet population growth and a typical infill project adds four units, and on average a parcel is sold once every ten years, it needs 25 annual infill
projects, which requires upzoning at least 750 parcels that so each year there are at least 75 parcels for sale that are suitable for infill. To maximize affordability, development policies should favor lower-priced housing, with lower development fees and
approval requirements, and reduced parking requirements for moderate-priced houses, investments in affordable transport modes, more mixed development, plus housing subsidies for households that need them. Put this all together and we can have affordable, accessible,
and inclusive high-opportunity communities.</span></p>
<p class="x_MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt; font-size: 11pt; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;margin-bottom:11.25pt; background:white">
<span style="font-size:12.0pt; color:#333333">Readers, please help identify any credible overlooked evidence. If you know of recent peer-reviewed studies that use original, quantitative analysis to demonstrate that large-scale upzoning that allows significantly
more lower-priced housing types (multiplexes, townhouses and mid-rise apartments with unbundled parking) in attractive, high-population growth cities fails to increase housing affordability, please post them in the comments section below. </span></p>
<p class="x_MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt; font-size: 11pt; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;">
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