[Durham INC] A surge in vehicle crashes is disproportionately harming lower-income families and Black Americans.

Tue Aug 23 13:10:50 EDT 2022

August 23, 2022
[image: Author Headshot]
<https://nl.nytimes.com/f/newsletter/o3SdkZ1FoQ4Agynh1kKaPQ~~/AAAAAQA~/RgRk5zDmP0TAaHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnl0aW1lcy5jb20vYnkvZGF2aWQtbGVvbmhhcmR0P2NhbXBhaWduX2lkPTkmZW1jPWVkaXRfbm5fMjAyMjA4MjMmaW5zdGFuY2VfaWQ9NzAwMDkmbmw9dGhlLW1vcm5pbmcmcmVnaV9pZD0xMjk0MDgzMzcmc2VnbWVudF9pZD0xMDIxMjEmdGU9MSZ1c2VyX2lkPWFkMGIzZmJiMzkyZTMwNTBmZDdhNGIwZDc3ZjRiMjVmVwNueXRCCmMD5qsEY_mYE4hSE3lhbm5pc21pZkB5YWhvby5jb21YBAAAAAA~>

By David Leonhardt
<https://nl.nytimes.com/f/newsletter/o3SdkZ1FoQ4Agynh1kKaPQ~~/AAAAAQA~/RgRk5zDmP0TAaHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnl0aW1lcy5jb20vYnkvZGF2aWQtbGVvbmhhcmR0P2NhbXBhaWduX2lkPTkmZW1jPWVkaXRfbm5fMjAyMjA4MjMmaW5zdGFuY2VfaWQ9NzAwMDkmbmw9dGhlLW1vcm5pbmcmcmVnaV9pZD0xMjk0MDgzMzcmc2VnbWVudF9pZD0xMDIxMjEmdGU9MSZ1c2VyX2lkPWFkMGIzZmJiMzkyZTMwNTBmZDdhNGIwZDc3ZjRiMjVmVwNueXRCCmMD5qsEY_mYE4hSE3lhbm5pc21pZkB5YWhvby5jb21YBAAAAAA~>

Good morning. A surge in vehicle crashes is disproportionately harming
lower-income families and Black Americans.
A memorial in Albuquerque, where a 7-year-old was killed.Adria Malcolm for
The New York Times
Not since the 1940s

Vehicle crashes seem as if they might be an equal-opportunity public health
problem. Americans in every demographic group drive, after all. If
anything, poor families tend to rely more on public transportation and less
on car travel.

Yet vehicle deaths turn out to be highly unequal. Lower-income people are
much more likely to die in crashes, academic research shows. The racial
gaps are also huge — even bigger on a percentage basis than the racial gaps
on cancer, according to the C.D.C.
Data understates all death rates because race is not recorded in all
crashes. | Source: National Safety Council

The unequal toll from crashes is particularly notable now because the U.S.
is experiencing an alarming increase in vehicle deaths
<https://nl.nytimes.com/f/a/on22LTtLl6ugAfwmOmPu2g~~/AAAAAQA~/RgRk5zDmP0TdaHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubmh0c2EuZ292L3ByZXNzLXJlbGVhc2VzL2Vhcmx5LWVzdGltYXRlcy1maXJzdC1xdWFydGVyLTIwMjI_Y2FtcGFpZ25faWQ9OSZlbWM9ZWRpdF9ubl8yMDIyMDgyMyZpbnN0YW5jZV9pZD03MDAwOSZubD10aGUtbW9ybmluZyZyZWdpX2lkPTEyOTQwODMzNyZzZWdtZW50X2lkPTEwMjEyMSZ0ZT0xJnVzZXJfaWQ9YWQwYjNmYmIzOTJlMzA1MGZkN2E0YjBkNzdmNGIyNWZXA255dEIKYwPmqwRj-ZgTiFITeWFubmlzbWlmQHlhaG9vLmNvbVgEAAAAAA~~>.
Pete Buttigieg, the transportation secretary, recently called it “a
national crisis of fatalities and serious injuries on our roadways.” And
the toll is falling most heavily on lower-income Americans and Black
Americans.

The reasons for the increase remain somewhat mysterious, experts say. But
the consequences are clear. More than 115 Americans have been dying on the
roads on average every day this year.

Today’s newsletter will explore the likely explanations for the increase,
as well as its unequal impact and the potential solutions.
A decline, reversed

Not so long ago, the trend in car crashes was a good-news story. The death
rate began to fall in the early 1970s, thanks in large part to the consumer
movement started by Ralph Nader. Cars became safer. States passed seatbelt
laws. Drunken driving became less common. The declines continued into the
early 2010s, as airbags became standard and vehicles began to include
technology to prevent crashes.
Source: National Safety Council

But the situation changed around 2015, with the death rate mostly rising
over the next several years. One reason seems to be distracted driving
<https://nl.nytimes.com/f/newsletter/GMboCWq-QD5JQd_mnihRjg~~/AAAAAQA~/RgRk5zDmP0TnaHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnl0aW1lcy5jb20vMjAxOC8wOS8yNy9idXNpbmVzcy9kaXN0cmFjdGVkLWRyaXZpbmctYXV0by1pbmR1c3RyeS5odG1sP2NhbXBhaWduX2lkPTkmZW1jPWVkaXRfbm5fMjAyMjA4MjMmaW5zdGFuY2VfaWQ9NzAwMDkmbmw9dGhlLW1vcm5pbmcmcmVnaV9pZD0xMjk0MDgzMzcmc2VnbWVudF9pZD0xMDIxMjEmdGU9MSZ1c2VyX2lkPWFkMGIzZmJiMzkyZTMwNTBmZDdhNGIwZDc3ZjRiMjVmVwNueXRCCmMD5qsEY_mYE4hSE3lhbm5pc21pZkB5YWhvby5jb21YBAAAAAA~>.
By 2015, two-thirds of U.S. adults owned a smartphone, up from almost none
in 2006.

The U.S. has also been less aggressive about cracking down on speeding than
Britain and some other parts of Europe, and vehicles here tend to be
larger. “The engorgement of the American vehicle,” as Gregory Shill of the
University of Iowa has called it, can kill pedestrians and people in
smaller vehicles. These patterns help explain why death rates have fallen
substantially more
<https://nl.nytimes.com/f/newsletter/HTJGB4YZv59-Kq3ikM_vPg~~/AAAAAQA~/RgRk5zDmP0TxaHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnl0aW1lcy5jb20vMjAxNy8xMS8xOS9vcGluaW9uL2FtZXJpY2EtaXMtbm93LWFuLW91dGxpZXItb24tZHJpdmluZy1kZWF0aHMuaHRtbD9jYW1wYWlnbl9pZD05JmVtYz1lZGl0X25uXzIwMjIwODIzJmluc3RhbmNlX2lkPTcwMDA5Jm5sPXRoZS1tb3JuaW5nJnJlZ2lfaWQ9MTI5NDA4MzM3JnNlZ21lbnRfaWQ9MTAyMTIxJnRlPTEmdXNlcl9pZD1hZDBiM2ZiYjM5MmUzMDUwZmQ3YTRiMGQ3N2Y0YjI1ZlcDbnl0QgpjA-arBGP5mBOIUhN5YW5uaXNtaWZAeWFob28uY29tWAQAAAAA>
in
other countries than in the U.S. during recent decades.

As alarming as these trends were, the biggest increases have taken place
more recently — since the pandemic. In the spring of 2020, as Covid was
transforming daily life, vehicle crashes surged
<https://nl.nytimes.com/f/newsletter/kw8ZjQeiIBBC5fjgh1gLHQ~~/AAAAAQA~/RgRk5zDmP0TmaHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnl0aW1lcy5jb20vMjAyMi8wMi8xNS9icmllZmluZy92ZWhpY2xlLWNyYXNoZXMtZGVhdGhzLXBhbmRlbWljLmh0bWw_Y2FtcGFpZ25faWQ9OSZlbWM9ZWRpdF9ubl8yMDIyMDgyMyZpbnN0YW5jZV9pZD03MDAwOSZubD10aGUtbW9ybmluZyZyZWdpX2lkPTEyOTQwODMzNyZzZWdtZW50X2lkPTEwMjEyMSZ0ZT0xJnVzZXJfaWQ9YWQwYjNmYmIzOTJlMzA1MGZkN2E0YjBkNzdmNGIyNWZXA255dEIKYwPmqwRj-ZgTiFITeWFubmlzbWlmQHlhaG9vLmNvbVgEAAAAAA~~>.
By the start of this year, the death rate had jumped about 20 percent from
prepandemic levels. It has been the sharpest increase since the 1940s.
Source: National Safety Council

How did Covid lead to more crashes?

At first, researchers thought that emptier roads might be the main answer.
Open roads can encourage speeding, and speeding can be fatal. But even as
traffic returned to near-normal levels last year, traffic deaths remained
high. That combination weakens the empty-road theory, as Robert Schneider,
an urban-planning expert at the University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee, said.

The most plausible remaining theories tend to involve the mental health
problems caused by Covid’s isolation and disruption. Alcohol and drug abuse
have increased. Impulsive behavior, like running red lights and failing to
wear seatbelts, also seems to have risen (as my colleague Simon Romero has
reported
<https://nl.nytimes.com/f/newsletter/vpBvTv8-oiBFvrkar6c3EQ~~/AAAAAQA~/RgRk5zDmP0TbaHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnl0aW1lcy5jb20vMjAyMi8wMi8xNC91cy9wZWRlc3RyaWFuLWRlYXRocy1wYW5kZW1pYy5odG1sP2NhbXBhaWduX2lkPTkmZW1jPWVkaXRfbm5fMjAyMjA4MjMmaW5zdGFuY2VfaWQ9NzAwMDkmbmw9dGhlLW1vcm5pbmcmcmVnaV9pZD0xMjk0MDgzMzcmc2VnbWVudF9pZD0xMDIxMjEmdGU9MSZ1c2VyX2lkPWFkMGIzZmJiMzkyZTMwNTBmZDdhNGIwZDc3ZjRiMjVmVwNueXRCCmMD5qsEY_mYE4hSE3lhbm5pc21pZkB5YWhvby5jb21YBAAAAAA~>).
Many Americans have felt frustrated or unhappy, and it seems to have
affected their driving.

“They’re a little bit less regulated — they might not be considering
consequences,” Kira Mauseth, a clinical psychologist at Seattle University, has
said
<https://nl.nytimes.com/f/a/_ZzwPvQ4srno8sQIT8KW2g~~/AAAAAQA~/RgRk5zDmP0TQaHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuYXBhLm9yZy9tb25pdG9yLzIwMjIvMDYvZmVhdHVyZS10cmFmZmljLXNhZmV0eT9jYW1wYWlnbl9pZD05JmVtYz1lZGl0X25uXzIwMjIwODIzJmluc3RhbmNlX2lkPTcwMDA5Jm5sPXRoZS1tb3JuaW5nJnJlZ2lfaWQ9MTI5NDA4MzM3JnNlZ21lbnRfaWQ9MTAyMTIxJnRlPTEmdXNlcl9pZD1hZDBiM2ZiYjM5MmUzMDUwZmQ3YTRiMGQ3N2Y0YjI1ZlcDbnl0QgpjA-arBGP5mBOIUhN5YW5uaXNtaWZAeWFob28uY29tWAQAAAAA>.
Frank Farley, a psychologist at Temple University, put it this way to The
Los Angeles Times: “You’ve been cooped up, locked down and have
restrictions you chafe at.”

Ken Kolosh, who oversees data analysis at the National Safety Council, a
nonprofit group, told me that researchers would need years to tease out all
the causes. Confusingly, vehicle deaths did not surge in most other
countries during the pandemic, suggesting that stress was a particularly
American problem. “The world really felt upside down,” Kolosh said.

One encouraging data point that’s consistent with this theory: The most
recent data shows that vehicle deaths declined modestly this spring, as
Covid restrictions continued to recede.
The scene of a collision in Manhattan this month.Dakota Santiago for The
New York Times
An unequal pandemic …

Still, the surge in crashes has become one more way that the pandemic has
hurt lower-income Americans and people of color the most — as did the early
wave of Covid deaths
<https://nl.nytimes.com/f/newsletter/0tYxvWVEqGDVDO7pQkSaCQ~~/AAAAAQA~/RgRk5zDmP0TgaHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnl0aW1lcy5jb20vMjAyMi8wNi8wOS9icmllZmluZy9jb3ZpZC1yYWNlLWRlYXRocy1hbWVyaWNhLmh0bWw_Y2FtcGFpZ25faWQ9OSZlbWM9ZWRpdF9ubl8yMDIyMDgyMyZpbnN0YW5jZV9pZD03MDAwOSZubD10aGUtbW9ybmluZyZyZWdpX2lkPTEyOTQwODMzNyZzZWdtZW50X2lkPTEwMjEyMSZ0ZT0xJnVzZXJfaWQ9YWQwYjNmYmIzOTJlMzA1MGZkN2E0YjBkNzdmNGIyNWZXA255dEIKYwPmqwRj-ZgTiFITeWFubmlzbWlmQHlhaG9vLmNvbVgEAAAAAA~~>
 and the consequences of closed schools
<https://nl.nytimes.com/f/newsletter/VNlokyEyEyOCw98trEr7eg~~/AAAAAQA~/RgRk5zDmP0TqaHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnl0aW1lcy5jb20vMjAyMi8wNS8wNS9icmllZmluZy9zY2hvb2wtY2xvc3VyZXMtY292aWQtbGVhcm5pbmctbG9zcy5odG1sP2NhbXBhaWduX2lkPTkmZW1jPWVkaXRfbm5fMjAyMjA4MjMmaW5zdGFuY2VfaWQ9NzAwMDkmbmw9dGhlLW1vcm5pbmcmcmVnaV9pZD0xMjk0MDgzMzcmc2VnbWVudF9pZD0xMDIxMjEmdGU9MSZ1c2VyX2lkPWFkMGIzZmJiMzkyZTMwNTBmZDdhNGIwZDc3ZjRiMjVmVwNueXRCCmMD5qsEY_mYE4hSE3lhbm5pc21pZkB5YWhvby5jb21YBAAAAAA~>
.

As I mentioned above, vehicle fatalities have long been unequal. Poorer
people are more likely to drive older cars, which can lack safety features.
Low-income neighborhoods are also much more likely to have high-speed roads
running through them. “We have systematically put these arterial roadways
in areas where people had less political power to fight back,” Rebecca
Sanders, the founder of Safe Streets Research & Consulting, said.

The pandemic probably exacerbated the gaps because many professionals have
begun working from home, while many blue-collar Americans kept driving,
biking or walking to work. Some lower-income workers also drive as part of
their jobs.
… and some solutions

Even if the full explanation of the surge in crashes is murky, many experts
believe that the most promising solutions remain clear.

“Making streets safer doesn’t require designing new solutions in
laboratories,” John Rennie Short, of the University of Maryland, Baltimore
County, has written
<https://nl.nytimes.com/f/a/qzdU2eMIIQ0e9IQmq0dTEg~~/AAAAAQA~/RgRk5zDmP0T8aHR0cHM6Ly90aGVjb252ZXJzYXRpb24uY29tL2RlYXRocy1hbmQtaW5qdXJpZXMtaW4tcm9hZC1jcmFzaGVzLWFyZS1hLXNpbGVudC1lcGlkZW1pYy1vbi13aGVlbHMtMTgyNzM1P2NhbXBhaWduX2lkPTkmZW1jPWVkaXRfbm5fMjAyMjA4MjMmaW5zdGFuY2VfaWQ9NzAwMDkmbmw9dGhlLW1vcm5pbmcmcmVnaV9pZD0xMjk0MDgzMzcmc2VnbWVudF9pZD0xMDIxMjEmdGU9MSZ1c2VyX2lkPWFkMGIzZmJiMzkyZTMwNTBmZDdhNGIwZDc3ZjRiMjVmVwNueXRCCmMD5qsEY_mYE4hSE3lhbm5pc21pZkB5YWhvby5jb21YBAAAAAA~>.
Jeffrey Michael, another expert, told The Washington Post, “This is an
issue for which answers are known.”

Those answers include: stricter enforcement of speed limits, seatbelt
mandates and drunken-driving laws; better designed roads, especially in
poorer neighborhoods; more public transit; and further spread of safety
features like automated braking.

Continuing to leave behind the disruptions of Covid — and the loneliness
and stress they have caused — seems likely to help, too.

Related: Buttigieg and the Transportation Department plan to use new
funding from Congress to reduce vehicle deaths
<https://nl.nytimes.com/f/newsletter/HJCP7_BYmUimC1vn7cDBPw~~/AAAAAQA~/RgRk5zDmP0ThaHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnl0aW1lcy5jb20vMjAyMi8wMS8yNy91cy9wb2xpdGljcy9kb3QtdHJhZmZpYy1kZWF0aHMtcGxhbi5odG1sP2NhbXBhaWduX2lkPTkmZW1jPWVkaXRfbm5fMjAyMjA4MjMmaW5zdGFuY2VfaWQ9NzAwMDkmbmw9dGhlLW1vcm5pbmcmcmVnaV9pZD0xMjk0MDgzMzcmc2VnbWVudF9pZD0xMDIxMjEmdGU9MSZ1c2VyX2lkPWFkMGIzZmJiMzkyZTMwNTBmZDdhNGIwZDc3ZjRiMjVmVwNueXRCCmMD5qsEY_mYE4hSE3lhbm5pc21pZkB5YWhvby5jb21YBAAAAAA~>.
Among the many projects: an elevated path for pedestrians in the Chicago
neighborhood of Englewood; and new sidewalks, bike lanes and lighting near
a mass transit station in Prince George’s County, Md.
be a kind human
Bonita Green
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